The Key To Solving Crime
President Trump has the extraordinary capacity to define the agenda and the terms under which the items on the agenda are discussed. Take crime for example. The President has elevated crime, and in particular violent crime in urban areas, to near top of the list of issues in America. Yet, polls indicate that this is not on top of the list for Americans. A Pew Research project from 2024 listed crime eighth among concerns for Americans behind inflation, partisanship, healthcare affordability, addiction, federal deficit, immigration and guns. A 2025 IPSOS poll cited extremism, economy, healthcare affordability, and morality all ahead of violent crime.
The President does not provide data to support his case because the data does not support his case. According to a 2025 report from the FBI crime is near the lowest point in the nation’s history. Nationally in 2024 alone murder decreased by 14.9% compared to the previous year, rape decreased 5.2%, aggravated assault decreased 3.0%,and robbery decreased 8.9%. To the President’s point it is true that murder rates have increased in four American cities including San Francisco, Seattle, the District of Columbia and Memphis.
The response from the Democratic Party falls into the trap. First, they mention the data but do not pursue it persistently with few exceptions. Secondly, they do not recognize the part of the issue in those urban areas that might support the President’s case. Finally, they do not recognize that there is real angst and fear about urban areas among Americans regardless of what those data say.
Most damaging, however, is neither party is defining the crime debate around the most viable, long term solution to crime in America. Certainly, we have proven to ourselves that we cannot police our way to a crime free society. On the other hand, Legal Clarity provides an overview of the top causes of crime in America. Among them the top four are:
· Socioeconomic Conditions. Poverty and unemployment create necessity driven by scarcity. Income inequality fosters resentment and frustration leading to increased criminal behavior
· Individual Developmental Factors. Family dysfunction including neglect, abuse, or inconsistent parenting disrupts healthy development and increases the risk of engaging in delinquent behavior. Early childhood trauma or instability has lasting effects on behavior and emotional regulation influencing how individuals respond to challenges and interact with others throughout their lives
· Community and Environmental Influences. Neighborhoods characterized by social disorganization, high residential mobility and low socioeconomic status experience higher crime rates. A lack of social cohesion within a community weakens informal social controls, making it easier for criminal activity to occur
· Behavioral Health Challenges. Substance abuse is a significant contributing factor to criminal behavior. Addiction can compel individuals to commit crimes, such as theft, fraud, or robbery to finance their drug habits and ease the poverty that is often caused by alcohol and other drug abuse. Mental health issues also play a role as certain conditions may impair judgment, increase impulsivity, or affect decision-making abilities, potentially leading to criminal acts. The risk of criminal acts increases when severe mental health disorders are combined with substance abuse.
We have shown in previous articles that alcohol and other drug abuse and addiction drives a significant amount of crime in America. In a 2025 study Alcohol Help listed the role of alcohol in several categories of crime. They included robbery at 15%, sexual assault at 37%, aggravated assault at 27% and homicide at 40%. A study by Rosewood Recovery in 2004 noted that 32% of state prisoners and 26% of federal prisoners admitted to committing their offenses under the influence of drugs. Another 25% of convicted property and drug offenders reported that they committed their crimes to obtain money for drugs. Study after study estimate that 70% or more of currently incarcerated individuals in America have an alcohol or other drug abuse and addiction issue.
It is not our intent to suggest that any level or crime is acceptable or that policing when crime is committed is not required and important. It is our intent to note that we will not police our way out of crime. Attending to the primary causes of crime is a far better solution. As we focus increasingly on policing as an answer we do so at the expense of the real, long-term solution. We are not experts in economics, community development or behavioral health. We do have some insight into alcohol and other drug abuse and addiction and know that a real and persistent effort at education, intervention and treatment would have far greater impact.
It is said that every system is perfectly designed to get the outcome it does. Axiomatic, certainly, but it does point to the core issue. It continues logically that there are other outcomes distributed across our society that benefit a sufficient number of Americans such that crime and other impacts of substance abuse and addiction are a price we are willing to pay. To the extent that this is true we need to focus on the costs that can be saved and benefits accrued by a great proportion of Americans. Cost avoidance from crime is one such benefit. Reducing the direct costs to our healthcare system estimated to be $13 billion in a 2021 JAMA report is another.
Gene Gilchrist
October 2025
